Texas set to house the U.S.'s three most populous cities by 2100, report says

All roads lead to Texas as America's urban landscape transforms, according to a recent report. Current migration trends and growth rates show that by 2100, the Lone Star State could be home to the three most populous cities in the United States.

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What did the report reveal?

According to moveBuddha projections, Dallas is expected to take the top spot, followed by Houston in second place, and Austin as the third most populous city. This demographic shift signals a significant change from the current status quo, where New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago dominate the urban landscape.

In terms of population, Dallas is not the fastest-growing city, but it could be the largest:

The site of Goldman Sachs Group's new campus following a groundbreaking ceremony in Dallas, Texas, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023. Goldman Sachs Group's newest campus in Dallas's Victory Park neighborhood will allow Goldman to consolidate most of its

Dallas is projected to claim the number-one spot by 2100 in 77 years by moveBuddha. Dallas metropolitan area ranked fourth by population in 2021. If its current growth rate persists, it could boast nearly 34 million residents by the turn of the century. Dallas may face challenges such as scorching temperatures and water scarcity. Its landlocked location, however, makes it an attractive destination for people seeking refuge from sea-level rise flooding coastal areas, according to the report.

Houston's soaring population and ongoing hurricane battle:

The construction site at the surface parking lot across from the Harris County Criminal Justice Center, 1201 Franklin, is representative of an ongoing trend in downtown Houston, where surface lots are being replaced. Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2010, in Hous

As of 2021, Houston was the 5th-most populated metropolitan area in the United States. If current growth rates continue, the Bayou City will jump to #2, according to MoveBuddha's projections. Houston’s growth rate between 2010 and 2020 was slower than Austin, Phoenix, and even San Antonio’s. Its sizable population, however, gives it a leg up in the race to become the largest American city by 2100.

Houston faces an added threat in the form of more destructive hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Harvey's devastating impact in 2017 reminds us of potential dangers.

Austin's remarkable growth:

AUSTIN, TEXAS - APRIL 11: In an aerial view, the downtown skyline is seen on April 11, 2023 in Austin, Texas. The city of Austin has been ranked as the top destination of U.S. job markets for the second consecutive year according to data from The Wal

Austin, in particular, has been making waves in population growth. According to U.S. Census data, between 2010 and 2020, the city had the second-fastest growth rate among all large U.S. cities. If this trend continues, Austin is set to make a whopping leap from number 28 in 2021 to number #3 in 2100. While recent data shows a slight slowdown in people moving to Austin, experts believe this is only a temporary lull in the city's long-term growth story.

How were these projections made?

This report examines data from the U.S. Census Bureau of all U.S. metropolitan areas with more than 250,000 residents. To estimate the total metropolitan area population for 2100, MoveBuddha calculates the annual compound growth rates for all cities from 2020 to 2100.