After record early vote analysts say Harris Co. Democrats have edge

It's been a record early vote in Harris County driven by a trio of factors - one part interest, one part population growth and one part convenience.

Which side slides into election day ahead depends on who you talk to.

Texas Southern University professor Jay Aiyer believes the ticket topped by Hillary Clinton should have the upper hand here come Tuesday.

"The Democrats should win the early vote which puts them in a strong position going into e-day and probably a pretty strong position of winning the majority of offices here in the county," said Aiyer.

But a late surge in suburban early ballots has impressed veteran St. Thomas analyst Jon Taylor.

"From Kingwood over to Katy those places are voting more heavily than the rest of the County and those are traditionally Republican areas," said Taylor.

Rice Political Scientist Mark Jones says the outcome of this early vote presents a hard bottom-line for local Republicans - win it by a decent margin or kiss most of your races goodbye.

"When we see the early votes early in the evening on November 8th, if Republicans aren't already ahead with a nice little cushion, then its going to be a dark night for most of the Harris County Republican party," said Jones.

That's because more local Democrats have historically cast their ballots on election day.

"Democrats and Republicans are relatively neck and neck in the early vote and that tends to be bad news for Republicans and good news for Democrats," said Jones.

"If you see a lot of heavy voting in Democrat precincts on election day, look out, you may see what you saw back in 2008 with a sweep of Republican judges out of office," said Taylor.

"I think by and large we are probably looking at a phenomenon similar to what you saw in 2008 where you have a sweep," said Aiyer.