HOUSTON - Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Colorado State University have released their 2022 Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast verification.
The season has ended with near-average numbers, less active than most of the preseason forecasts. Here are some highlights and statistics from the report.
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was near average for continental US landfall frequency, with three named storms (Colin, Ian, and Nicole) and two hurricanes (Ian and Nicole) making landfall. The average number of continental US landfalls (excluding multiple landfalls from the same system) from 1900-2020 are 3.2 named storms, 1.6 hurricanes, and 0.5 major hurricanes per year.
The most notable continental US hurricane landfall (Ian) was extremely intense (Category 4) and impactful, causing ~130 fatalities in the continental United States and over $50 billion USD in damage according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
The complete lack of activity in August 2022 was the biggest surprise of the 2022 season. La Niña conditions prevailed throughout the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. While La Niña typically decreases tropical Atlantic and Caribbean vertical wind shear, wind shear was elevated across the Caribbean in both August and October.
Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures were warmer than normal during the peak of the 2022 hurricane season. Anomalously cool sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic may have favored anomalously frequent wave-breaking and associated increases in vertical wind shear, especially during August.
- 14 named storms formed in the Atlantic this season. This is the 7th straight season where the Atlantic has had at least 14 named storm formations. The last season below the 1991-2020 average of 14 named storms was 2015 (when 11 named storms formed).
- The Atlantic had no named storm activity between July 3 and August 31 – the 1st time since 1941 that the Atlantic had no named storm activity between those dates.
- 4 hurricanes (Danielle, Earl, Fiona and Ian) formed in the Atlantic between September 2 – 26 – the 7th time since the start of the active era (since 1995) that this has occurred. The other six years were: 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2017, 2020.
- 3 hurricanes formed during November (Lisa, Martin and Nicole), tying 2022 with 2001 for the most November Atlantic hurricane formations on record.
- Hurricane Fiona, as a post-tropical cyclone, made landfall with an estimated central pressure of ~931 hPa in Nova Scotia – the lowest pressure recorded for a landfalling storm in Canada on record.
- Hurricane Ian made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt. Ian is tied with five other hurricanes for the 5th strongest continental US hurricane landfall on record, trailing only the four landfalling Category 5 continental US hurricanes (Florida Keys-1935, Camille-1969, Andrew-1992, Michael-2018)
(Photo courtesy of NOAA)
- Hurricanes Lisa and Martin had maximum sustained winds of 75 kt simultaneously in November – the first time that two hurricanes have had maximum sustained winds of 75+ kt in November simultaneously since 1932
- Hurricane Lisa made landfall on November 2 in Belize – the first landfalling hurricane in Belize in November since 1942
- Hurricane Nicole was the latest calendar year hurricane to make landfall along the east coast of Florida on record.