What this year’s El Niño weather pattern means for fall leaves

The wetter El Niño weather pattern expected for fall could spell good news for lovers of vibrant-colored leaves. 

Don Hagan, an associate professor of forest ecology in Clemson University’s Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, laid out three reasons why he’s "optimistic" in an interview with The Associated Press. 

Fall foliage forecast

What they're saying:

Hagan said the lack of extreme drought conditions in middle and late summer could bring better colors to leaves this fall. 

"So sure, we had some hot weather, we had some spells where it was pretty dry, but it wasn't so hot and so dry for so long where it would cause some of these trees to drop their leaves early, and that happens a lot of years," he said. 

El Niño favors brighter fall colors

Big picture view:

Hagan said the El Niño weather pattern typically means a warmer and moister fall – also good news for fans of fall leaves. 

"What that is going to do is that's going to keep these trees happy," he said. "When leaves start to change color in the fall, really what that is, is that's a stress response to those weather conditions and the fall."

RELATED: You can thank El Niño for this year's record-slow Atlantic hurricane season: Here's why

How hurricanes affect fall leaves

Dig deeper:

Hagan said a second factor in his colorful fall foliage prediction is the record-quiet Atlantic hurricane season, though Hurricane Isais, which made landfall Friday near Destin, Florida, may have blown off some leaves that were starting to turn colors. 

What's next:

Weather over the next several weeks will ultimately determine the quality of the season, Hagan said, with mild cold fronts followed by sunny days and cool nights creating ideal conditions for color development. 

"A mild cold front comes through, and you might get a little bit of rain, a little bit of cloudy conditions … but then it's followed by some mild sunny days and some cool but not cold nights. That combination of weather characteristics right there, particularly if you have a couple of cold fronts back-to-back, that's going to expedite that fall color development over these next couple of weeks."

When is peak fall foliage season?  

Local perspective:

In the Southern Appalachians, peak color is expected first at elevations around 5,000 feet along the Blue Ridge Parkway in early- to mid-October before moving downhill at roughly 1,000 feet per week and reaching the South Carolina Upstate in the first or second week of November.

RELATED: When is the best time to see peak fall colors across the Northeast?

In New York, the best times to catch peak fall color are: 

• Early to Mid-October: Upstate mountains
• Late October: Upstate (lower elevations)
• Early November: Surrounding NYC suburbs
• Mid-November: New York City

In Pennsylvania, the best times are: 

• Mid-October (Oct 11–18): Northern tier and high elevations (Potter, McKean, Warren, Tioga, Wyoming, Susquehanna, Wayne, Forest, Erie, Sullivan, Bradford, and Elk counties).
• Late October (Oct 19–31): Central mountains, western, and lower central regions (Venango, Crawford, Cameron, Jefferson, Clinton, Clarion, Pike, Carbon, Lycoming, Blair, Cambria, Lackawanna, Mercer, Centre, Monroe, Butler, Clearfield, Schuylkill, Luzerne, Montour, Lawrence, Indiana, Union, Dauphin, Somerset, Columbia, Fayette, Armstrong, Huntingdon, Northampton, Snyder, Mifflin, Northumberland, Allegheny, Bedford, Beaver, Westmoreland, and Washington counties).
• Early November (Nov 1–9): Southeast and lower elevations (Perry, Lehigh, Juniata, Lebanon, Greene, Berks, Bucks, Cumberland, York, Fulton, Franklin, Lancaster, Montgomery, Adams, Chester, Philadelphia, and Delaware counties).

In New Jersey, the best times are: 

• Early to mid-October: Bergen, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, Sussex, and Warren counties.
• Mid-October: Burlington, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties.
• Mid to late October: Atlantic, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Monmouth, Ocean, and Salem counties.

In Maryland and Delaware, the best times are: 

• Late October: Northern portion of Maryland.
• Early November: Inner portions of both Maryland and Delaware
• Mid-November: Maryland's Inner Harbor and Delaware's coastal areas like Rehoboth and Bethany beaches.

In Virginia and Washington, D.C., the best times are: 

• Early to mid-October: The highest mountains of Southwest Virginia and the Alleghenies.
• Mid to late October: The Shenandoah Valley and Virginia’s broader mountain regions, along with central Virginia and parts of Northern Virginia.
• Late October to early November: Coastal Virginia.
• Early to mid-November: Washington, D.C. (Note: Leaves begin changing in early October, but local dry conditions can potentially shorten the display window before the peak).

"So, if you time it just right, pay attention to the weather, pay attention to the elevation and get out there and explore a little bit, you might find some really, really fantastic fall color in 2026," Hagan said. 

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