Senate poll finds Texas Democrats more energized as Talarico leads Paxton
Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local)
AUSTIN, Texas - State Rep. James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the closely watched U.S. Senate race, according to a new Texas Politics Project poll that also found Democrats reporting greater enthusiasm for voting.
Talarico leads Paxton in latest poll
By the numbers:
The latest polling from the Texas Politics Project shows Talarico with a 3-point lead over Paxton, 42%-39%. The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Ted Brown with the support of 3% of those polled, while 14% said they haven't thought about it enough to form an opinion.
Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
Democrats are more enthusiastic about vote and more committed to Talarico
Dig deeper:
The poll also found that Democrats were more enthusiastic about voting this election cycle, compared to 2022, while Republican enthusiasm has waned.
Around 87% of Democrats said they were at least somewhat enthusiastic about voting in this election, with 50% saying they were extremely enthusiastic. During the 2022 midterm elections, 48% of Democrats said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting, with around 84% of voters being at least somewhat enthusiastic.
Enthusiasm was also high on the Republican side, with 84% being enthusiastic about voting. The biggest difference between the parties is in those extremely enthusiastic about voting. Only 39% of Republicans said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, compared to the 52% from the 2022 midterms.
Democrats are also more committed to voting for Talarcio, compared to Republican support for Paxton.
The poll shows Talarico has the support of 91% of Democrats, with 1% supporting Brown and 8% saying they did not have an opinion.
On the Republican side, 79% of Republicans said they supported Paxton, with 5% going to Talarico, 4% to Brown and 11% with no opinion.
Independent voters that have made their decision are soundly in Talarico's favor, 37% to 11%. However, 43% of those polled do not have an opinion.
Republicans lead in other statewide races
The Texas Politics Project also surveyed other statewide races, as well as generic Republican versus Democrat races for U.S. Congress and the Texas Legislature.
- Governor: Greg Abbott (R) 45%, Gina Hinojosa (D) 40%
- Lt. Governor: Dan Patrick (R) 42%, Vikki Goodwin (D) 35%
- Attorney General: Mayes Middleton (R) 40%, Nathan Johnson (D) 35%
- Comptroller: Don Huffines (R) 40%, Sarah Eckhardt 34% (D)
- Generic U.S. Congress: Republican candidate 48%, Democratic candidate 44%
- Generic Texas Legislature: Republican candidate 49%, Democratic candidate 43%
The poll was conducted Aug. 5–13, 2026, among 1,200 registered voters in Texas. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.
The Source: Information in this article comes from an Aug. 5–13 poll by the Texas Politics Project of 1,200 registered Texas voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.