Atlantic tropical disturbance being tracked with hurricane season over a month away

MIAMI – More than 30 days out from the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center is tracking the first feature of the year. However, like many off-season developments, it will likely just be a meteorological wonder.

The NHC gave the area of low pressure, which is more than 1,000 miles off the African coast, just a 10% chance of development and said its window for organization would likely end by Thursday.

Atlantic Overview

Tracking the seasons first tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean (Source: FOX Weather)

The FOX Forecast Center said the area of low pressure broke away from a frontal boundary to become its own unique feature in the open Atlantic.

Due to the position of the area of low pressure, the disturbance is simply a marine interest until upper-level winds shear away thunderstorm activity Thursday.

NOAA warned the system was producing wind gusts of about 35 mph, and seas were reported to be 11 to 14 feet in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

Satellite imagery showed the swirl diving to the southwest Wednesday ahead of unfavorable conditions that were expected to develop.

Elsewhere, around the Atlantic basin, forecast models show no development of tropical cyclones through at least the first week of May.

The Pacific Ocean is usually the first basin in the Western Hemisphere to see tropical cyclone formation during the year, but there, too, conditions look status quo for the next several weeks.

2024 hurricane season expected to be very active

The development of an off-season cyclone does not guarantee that a year will be extremely busy. However, coupled with an active hurricane outlook released by Colorado State University, it puts weight behind the idea that 2024 could be a banner year.

The CSU team is calling for 23 named storms, with 11 that are expected to become hurricanes and five that could reach major hurricane status, with winds of at least 111 mph.

Forecasters noted that the outlook was the largest prediction for named storms that CSU has ever issued.

In the Atlantic basin, the tropical cyclone season begins June 1, with the average first development happening about June 20. The first tropical storm of the 2024 season will earn the name of Alberto.