AP-TX--CRP-TX SE Area Forecast Discussion, TX

000

FXUS64 KCRP 151115 AAA

AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

615 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG AS STRATUS EXPANDS

AND TRANSITIONS TO A CU FIELD. VFR TO THEN PREVAIL FROM LATE MRNG

THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL S TX TERMINALS AS CU FIELD DSPTS

DUE TO DRY AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE SFC MIXING DOWN. ADDITIONAL

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KVCT/KALI LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS

ADDITIONAL STRATUS REDVLPS. LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BCMG

SERLY AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN/EVENING AS SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE

VERY SIMILAR AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GOES DERIVED TOTAL PRECIP

WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT DRY DEEP LAYER AIRMASS OVER

MUCH OF TEXAS THIS MORNING. A MODEST SOUTHERLY LLJ OF 25 TO 30

KNOTS ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY IS

LEADING TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND

IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PARTLY TO

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS

TRANSITIONING TO CUMULUS...AND THEN DISSIPATING LATE MORNING AS

STRONG MIXING OCCURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM

PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ON THURSDAY MAY

LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THROUGH THE

DAY...BUT CONTINUED HOT AND A LITTLE MORE HUMID. MAX HEAT INDICES

TODAY NEAR/BRIEFLY AROUND 105 DEGREES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES

EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SECOND VERSE...SAME AS

THE FIRST. HIGH AND DRY WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. WILL STILL

HOLD OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR ANY MORNING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND OVER THE

COASTAL AREAS AS FOR NOW WOULD ONLY MENTION ISOLATED AND LESS THAN

20 PERCENT SINCE MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOT GREAT BUT SURFACE

FORCING/CONVERGENCE IS THERE (SINCE WINDS ARE UP THIS WEEKEND).

THUS...HAVE GHOST 10 POPS IN THESE AREAS FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE

MORNING. OTHERWISE...IN THE SPIRIT KEEPING THIS SHORT SINCE THERE

HAS BEEN NO NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN (ESPECIALLY THE

UPPER PATTERN) EITHER IN THE ON-GOING FORECAST OR IN THE PREVIOUS

FEW DAYS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO SAY WARM...HUMID AND DRY AND LEAVE

IT AT THAT. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE/SKY/WIND

GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

CORPUS CHRISTI 95 76 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 10 10

VICTORIA 95 75 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 10

LAREDO 102 76 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 0

ALICE 98 74 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 10

ROCKPORT 92 81 92 81 92 / 0 0 10 10 10

COTULLA 101 74 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 0

KINGSVILLE 96 75 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 10

NAVY CORPUS 90 80 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...NONE.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 7:15AM EDT