AP-TX--CRP-TX SE Area Forecast Discussion, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 151115 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG AS STRATUS EXPANDS
AND TRANSITIONS TO A CU FIELD. VFR TO THEN PREVAIL FROM LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL S TX TERMINALS AS CU FIELD DSPTS
DUE TO DRY AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE SFC MIXING DOWN. ADDITIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KVCT/KALI LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL STRATUS REDVLPS. LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BCMG
SERLY AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN/EVENING AS SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GOES DERIVED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT DRY DEEP LAYER AIRMASS OVER
MUCH OF TEXAS THIS MORNING. A MODEST SOUTHERLY LLJ OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY IS
LEADING TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND
IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
TRANSITIONING TO CUMULUS...AND THEN DISSIPATING LATE MORNING AS
STRONG MIXING OCCURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY LITTLE FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ON THURSDAY MAY
LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT CONTINUED HOT AND A LITTLE MORE HUMID. MAX HEAT INDICES
TODAY NEAR/BRIEFLY AROUND 105 DEGREES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SECOND VERSE...SAME AS
THE FIRST. HIGH AND DRY WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. WILL STILL
HOLD OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR ANY MORNING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AS FOR NOW WOULD ONLY MENTION ISOLATED AND LESS THAN
20 PERCENT SINCE MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOT GREAT BUT SURFACE
FORCING/CONVERGENCE IS THERE (SINCE WINDS ARE UP THIS WEEKEND).
THUS...HAVE GHOST 10 POPS IN THESE AREAS FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...IN THE SPIRIT KEEPING THIS SHORT SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN NO NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN (ESPECIALLY THE
UPPER PATTERN) EITHER IN THE ON-GOING FORECAST OR IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO SAY WARM...HUMID AND DRY AND LEAVE
IT AT THAT. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE/SKY/WIND
GRIDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 76 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 95 75 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 10
LAREDO 102 76 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 98 74 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 92 81 92 81 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
COTULLA 101 74 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 96 75 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 90 80 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...AVIATION
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 7:15AM EDT