DALLAS - Texas job growth is expected to slow down going into 2023, according to a forecast released this month by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank.
Economists say it is a good time to prepare for a potential recession, but the combination of soaring inflation with low unemployment is unprecedented, which makes forecasting the future difficult.
"This is an unusual thing, almost like a polar bear at the beach. You don't expect it," said SMU economist Mike Davis. "We know the Federal Reserve is playing a critical role in the economy. They are raising interest rates with car and home loans, sooner or later that will discourage economic growth. We can hope the Fed gets it right and there is a smooth landing, but there are no guarantees."
Despite inflation, Texas has continually added jobs in 2022, according to the Dallas Fed.
Over the last year, the Lone Star state will add 556,000 jobs over last year, according to projections. That is 4.3% increase in 2022.
Other indicators create what is known as the "Leading Index." The Dallas Fed says that is declining citing a decrease in help-wanted advertising, a rise in unemployment claims and falling oil prices.
"We all have to be aware there is possibly bad economic news sometime next year," said Davis.
And while it is the season for shopping Davis says people should be careful with their finances, and also their jobs.
"Make sure if there is a slow-down and people are laid off, you are not one of those people." he said. "If you hate your job, it is still a good time to look for something else."
Davis says in unusual times like this, it may be better to wait for large purchases like a new car.
A 'help wanted' sign is posted in front of restaurant on February 4, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. - The United States added an unexpectedly robust 467,000 jobs in January, according to Labor Department data released today that also significantly
U.S. Congresswoman Beth Van Duyne, a member of the House Small Business Committee, addressed a lunch event Monday.
She told business leaders she is working to address their concerns about supply chain and labor shortages, as well as inflation.
"The average American is paying $9,000 more than 2 years ago because of inflation. The hit is one paycheck. One paycheck is gone, a full month salary," Van Duyne said. "I am making sure we are prioritizing businesses in the U.S. and not shackling them with unnecessary regulations."
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics job growth in the Dallas-Fort Worth area is almost double the rate in the U.S. overall and the highest among the largest metro areas.