Economy remains top issue as Talarico, Paxton remain locked in tight race

James Talarico has a slight lead in the U.S. Senate race based on the latest Emerson College poll, but the race remains extremely close.

Talarico's lead is just two points over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 48%-46%. Libertarian Ted Brown is polling at 1%, while 5% of voters say they are undecided. When asked who they lean toward, undecided voters pushed Talarico's support to 49%, Paxton to 48% and Brown to 3%.

The poll sampled 1,000 likely Texas voters between Oct. 17 and Oct. 19 and has a margin of error of 3.1%.

What they're saying:

"Since August, Talarico’s support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. "If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans. If it holds, Talarico benefits."

Texans still most worried about the economy

Dig deeper:

More Texans said the economy was the top issue for them as a voter, than any other issue in Emerson's poll.

The number of Texans that said the economy was their top issue rose 3% to 39% compared to Emerson's September poll.

Immigration (16%), threats to democracy (13%), education (12%), and healthcare (9%) were the other top issues for Texas voters.

According to the poll, voters who said the economy was their top issue were more likely to vote for Paxton over Talarico, 47% to 46%, but 6% remained undecided.

 Early voting in Texas runs through Oct. 30. Election day is Nov. 3.

TexasTexas Politics2026 ElectionsPolitics