AP-TX--ELP-TX Far W Area Forecast Discussion, TX

000

FXUS64 KEPZ 151003

AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM

403 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN

UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE

WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAVE AN ATMOSPHERE THAT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE

IN PLACE. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF

DEMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS

THE EASTERN LOWLANDS INCLUDING EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES. BY MONDAY

AND TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK OVER TO WEST TEXAS...LIKELY

LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. TEMPERATURES

WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE LOOK AT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT'S PRETTY OBVIOUS WHERE

THE UPPER HIGH RESIDES...OVER EAST TEXAS. TROPICAL CONNECTED

MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO BACK TO

WESTERN ARIZONA. PW'S CONTINUE AT AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES...

HIGHEST WEST. MODELS DIFFERING IN SHORT TERM. NAM IS MORE BULLISH

TODAY THURSDAY AS IT DEVELOPS MID/HIGH LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION OUT

NEAR THE BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE GILA

REGION THURSDAY. GFS LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE

AND FOR NOW WILL BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION. HAVING SAID THAT I STILL

BELIEVE TODAY/THURSDAY ARE BEST BETS FOR AREA WIDE THUNDERSTORM

COVERAGE...THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST HALF OF THE CWA LOOK TO

BE THE BEST. PW'S REMAINING AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES BOTH DAYS AND

WITH SLOW STORM STEERING LEVEL WINDS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH STILL NOT BUDGING MUCH BUT IT DOES

BEGIN BUILDING RIDGE BACK WESTWARD. SHOULD BE A SLOW PROCESS BUT

ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE A BIT IN THE EAST...SO THOUGH I

LEFT POPS IN EVERYWHERE...BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH AND WEST.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN DIVERGING IN THEIR

SOLUTIONS BUT RIGHT NOW I'LL TEND TO LEAN WITH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS

BEEN ROCK SOLID CONSISTENT WHEREAS THE GFS CONTINUES TO FLIP BACK

IN FORTH. ECMWF BASICALLY DRIFTS UPPER HIGH BACK OVER CENTRAL

TEXAS AND EXPANDS IT'S SIZE. ALONG WITH THIS COMES WARM ADVECTION

AT UPPER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALL BUT END THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EAST

OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LATEST GFS NOW SHOWING UPPER HIGH

REFORMING WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

TROUGH ACTUALLY FLUSHES MOST OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA BY

TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS BUT SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER FOR

NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/12Z-16/12Z.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY 18Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST

OF DEMING. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIG VSBY WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG

WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. AFT 22Z ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS FURTHER EAST. KTCS AND KDMN

WILL BE THE TAF SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER

TODAY...WITH KLRU AND KELP HAVING SLIMMER CHANCES.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER... A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH

ACROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER

EAST TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN

MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH ALL AREAS WILL SEE

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THE AREA FROM

DEMING WEST WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLOW

STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED...FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY

TODAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY WEST

OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

EL PASO 96 73 95 74 / 20 20 10 10

SIERRA BLANCA 98 69 96 70 / 10 20 10 10

LAS CRUCES 94 69 93 69 / 20 20 10 10

ALAMOGORDO 95 67 94 69 / 20 20 20 20

CLOUDCROFT 71 49 70 49 / 40 40 30 30

TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 92 67 91 68 / 30 30 20 20

SILVER CITY 82 62 82 61 / 50 40 40 40

DEMING 95 68 92 69 / 40 30 30 30

LORDSBURG 95 67 92 68 / 40 30 30 40

WEST EL PASO METRO 95 72 96 73 / 20 20 10 10

DELL CITY 98 69 96 70 / 10 20 10 10

FORT HANCOCK 98 72 97 73 / 10 20 10 10

LOMA LINDA 91 70 92 68 / 20 20 10 10

FABENS 96 72 96 72 / 20 20 10 10

SANTA TERESA 95 70 95 73 / 20 20 10 10

WHITE SANDS HQ 96 69 95 70 / 20 20 10 10

JORNADA RANGE 95 67 92 68 / 20 20 10 10

HATCH 95 67 93 67 / 20 30 10 20

COLUMBUS 95 68 92 70 / 30 30 20 20

OROGRANDE 96 70 94 71 / 20 20 10 10

MAYHILL 80 54 80 55 / 50 30 30 30

MESCALERO 80 54 81 54 / 40 30 30 30

TIMBERON 80 55 80 54 / 40 30 30 30

WINSTON 79 55 82 57 / 50 40 50 30

HILLSBORO 87 64 88 63 / 30 30 30 30

SPACEPORT 94 66 92 68 / 20 30 10 20

LAKE ROBERTS 80 56 83 55 / 60 40 50 40

HURLEY 84 64 85 62 / 40 30 40 30

CLIFF 90 63 89 64 / 50 30 40 40

MULE CREEK 89 63 87 61 / 50 30 40 30

FAYWOOD 87 64 86 63 / 40 30 30 30

ANIMAS 96 67 91 68 / 50 30 30 30

HACHITA 95 66 92 67 / 40 30 30 30

ANTELOPE WELLS 93 65 88 67 / 40 30 30 30

CLOVERDALE 88 66 87 64 / 40 30 30 40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NM...NONE.

TX...NONE.

&&

$$

17 HEFNER

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 6:04AM EDT