Forecasters expect fewer storms, experts urge preparation as hurricane season nears

Houston weather: May 31 overnight forecast

FOX 26's John Dawson gives the latest weather outlook as we near Hurricane season and what is to come for Southeast Texas as the month comes to a close.

Houston - Hurricane season officially begins Monday, and while forecasters are predicting fewer storms this year, meteorologists say that's no reason for Houstonians to let their guard down.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlook calls for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, due in part to developing El Niño conditions and cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Atlantic.

But experts caution that seasonal forecasts are designed to predict overall activity—not where storms may ultimately make landfall.

"It only takes one storm," said Cameron Batiste, lead meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "It could be the only storm of the entire season, but if it makes landfall in Houston, that makes it an active season here."

Preparation still matters:

Batiste says one of the biggest misconceptions people have when they hear forecasts calling for fewer storms is assuming there is little or no risk.

"The biggest misconception is that people hear fewer and that makes them think that is zero, which is definitely not the case," Batiste said.

Emergency officials recommend residents review evacuation plans, gather emergency supplies and ensure they have enough food, water and medications to last several days if a storm threatens the Gulf Coast.

Preparedness kits should include essentials such as bottled water, batteries, flashlights, first-aid supplies and important documents.

Remember Hurricane Alicia:

Experts often point to Hurricane Alicia as an example of why seasonal forecasts do not tell the whole story.

The 1983 Atlantic hurricane season produced just four named storms, making it one of the quietest seasons on record. Yet Alicia strengthened into a major hurricane before making landfall near Galveston in August of that year.

The storm caused widespread damage across Southeast Texas and remains one of the most memorable hurricanes in Houston's history.

Animated radar view of southeast Texas over the past 30 minutes.

What Houstonians should do now:

Before a storm forms in the Gulf, experts recommend residents:

• Determine their flood and evacuation risk.
• Build or refresh an emergency supply kit.
• Review evacuation routes.
• Check insurance coverage.
• Secure outdoor items that could become projectiles during high winds.

Batiste says preparing early can help residents avoid last-minute rushes if a storm threatens Southeast Texas later this season.

"The forecast is for fewer storms," he said. "But fewer doesn't mean none."v