Talarico leads Paxton in first post-runoff poll of Senate race
Ken Paxton (left) and James Talarico (Getty Images)
Texas state Rep. James Talarico has the early advantage over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their bids for the U.S. Senate in the first poll released since Paxton won the Republican primary runoff.
Talarico leads by three percentage points, 47%-44%, over Paxton in a survey of 1,670 likely voters conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research from May 27-28.
Among those polled, independent voters and Black voters overwhelmingly support Talarico, while Paxton holds the edge among voters without a college degree.
Black voters are the only demographic where Talarico has a distinct advantage, with 64% of voters saying they support him, while only 26% support Paxton. Latino voters are split between the candidates, with 46% saying they support Paxton and 42% supporting Talarico. White voters are almost equal in their support, with 46% of white voters saying they support Paxton and 45% saying they support Talarico.
Independent voters overwhelmingly said Talarico was their choice, 64% to 21%, over Paxton, with 11% undecided. Moderate voters also favor Talarico, 72% to 15%. Paxton leads Talarico among voters who describe themselves as "somewhat conservative" 66% to 18%.
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Who will Cornyn voters choose in the Senate race?
The poll found that nearly one-third of voters that supported Sen. John Cornyn on the Republican side would make the jump across the aisle to support Talarico in the general election.
Thirty percent of Cornyn supporters said they would vote for Talarico, while 44% said they now plan to vote for Paxton. Another 23% of Cornyn supporters said they were either undecided or would not vote in the general election.
Of the Cornyn voters that said they would vote for Talarico, 51% cited Paxton's criminality and corruption as their primary reason. Another 13% pointed to Paxton's moral failures, 7% cited his alignment with Trump and 5% cited their disillusionment with the Republican Party. Only 10% gave a positive reason for supporting Talarico and another 10% said they saw no acceptable alternative.
What matters to Texas voters?
The poll also asked voters what they believe are the top two issues that elected officials should prioritize.
Affordability and cost of living was the main concern among voters, with 23% of those polled listing it as their first choice and 20% listing it as their second choice.
Voting rights, immigration and health care access and cost were also top issues for voters.
Voters said Talarico better understands the economic challenges of Texans than Paxton, 45% to 40%, and that Talarico will do more to lower costs for everyday Texans, 44% to 40%.
Paxton is one of the most unpopular political figures in Texas
When asked if a political figure was viewed favorably or unfavorably, Paxton holds a -19 net favorability rating, with 38% viewing the attorney general favorably and 57% viewing him unfavorably. Paxton's score is the second worst among those on the list, finishing just ahead of Cornyn, whose net favorability is -31.
Paxton's score was below President Donald Trump (-3), Gov. Greg Abbott (-6) and a generic "Republican candidate running for office" (+6).
Talarico had the second-highest favorability rating at +7. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa had the highest favorability at +16, though 38% said they were unfamiliar with her.
Other statewide races
In other statewide races, Abbott holds a five-point advantage over Hinojosa and Republican Mayes Middleton was leading Democrat Nathan Johnson by the same five-point margin.
The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Source: Information in this article comes from a poll conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research between May 27 and 28 with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.