AP-TX--LCH-TX E Area Forecast Discussion, TX
000
FXUS64 KLCH 151507
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1007 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC CONFIRMING SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS FROM DYNAMIC
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER LEVELS. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP FOR
INTERIOR AREAS FROM GUIDANCE. CLOSER TO THE COAST, ONLY A TWEAK
HIGHER. COMBINED WITH UPDATED DEW POINTS, HEAT INDICES APPROACH
BUT DO NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR THIS. REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH POSSIBLILITY OF ISOLD SHOWERS FOR
ACADIANA THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/
AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...AND A FEW SMALL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
TRYING TO FORM OFF THE LOWER ACADIANA COAST.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HANGING IN OVER THE REGION WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 15/00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM KLCH WITH A BELOW NORM PWAT READING OF 1.3 INCHES
AND MEAN RH AROUND 40 PERCENT...WITH THE MID LEVEL RH AT 27
PERCENT. RECENT GPS-MET INTEGRATED PWAT VALUES AROUND THE AREA
SHOW NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH READINGS STILL FROM ROUGHLY 1.25 INCHES
TO 1.4 INCHES.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY ROUGHLY THE SAME FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD IN PLACE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH VALUES IN
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO ISOLATED CELLS MAY FORM IN THE MAX
DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES WHERE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND ATCHAFALAYA BASIN CONVERGENCE OCCURS...BUT
PROBABILITY LOW ENOUGH (BELOW 15 PERCENT) TO MENTION.
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY
TO HELP BRING ABOUT SUMMERTIME HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. ENOUGH
MIXING HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX READINGS JUST IN CHECK...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE REPORTING
SITES SEEING 100F TO 102F WITH ISOLATED SPOTS FROM 103F TO 106F.
PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO HERE...SO VALUES WILL BE JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 102F AND 106F
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BY THE WEEKEND...PROGS HINTING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING...WITH THE GFS MORE INCLINED TO BRING SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS...WILL INTRODUCE
ONLY SLIGHT POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
(MAINLY LOWER ACADIANA.) WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPANDING
WESTWARD TO INCLUDE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TO MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. STILL POPS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
RUA
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...NO REAL CHANGE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AS FAR AS WINDS AND SEAS GOES...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH WINDS AND LOW SEAS. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND OFF THE LOWER ACADIANA
WATERS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 99 74 95 75 / 0 0 10 0
LCH 94 77 93 78 / 10 0 10 10
LFT 95 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 0
BPT 94 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...11
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 11:07AM EDT