AP-TX--LBB-TX S Plains Area Forecast Discussion, TX

000

FXUS64 KLUB 151109 AAA

AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

609 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...

ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST

AREA. 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED

ACROSS EAST TEXAS/ARKLATEX REGION PLACING US UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN

QUARTER OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW ALOFT IS OUT OF THE

SOUTHWEST WITH MONSOON MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW

MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY

THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL

BE A FEW THAT DRIFT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS

AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW

YESTERDAY AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OR STRENGTH OF THE

RIDGE KEEPS CONDITIONS PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...

THE HOT CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER

LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXERT THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR

WEATHER LOCALLY. STILL...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED

EASTWARD FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS PROGGED TO REMAIN

ANCHORED OVER EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER

VALLEY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH

THE BROAD WESTERN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HELP TO BEND THE MONSOONAL

MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH LATE

WEEK AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THIS COULD

SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS

PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST

INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH AN

ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT

OF THE QUESTION.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXPAND

SUBTLY...BUT ENOUGH THAT IT MAY SHIFT THE DEEPER TROPOSPHERIC

MOISTURE FEED WESTWARD. THIS MAKES IT UNCLEAR IF EVEN THE NORTHWEST

ZONES CAN SEE ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND

UNMENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED.

THIS DRIER PATTERN COULD CHANGE BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS A MORE

SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PROPELS A

COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO

STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE HOW THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH

EARLY NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY REGARDING HOW MUCH ENERGY RACES BY WELL

TO THE NORTH AND HOW MUCH SPLITS OFF INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND

POTENTIALLY APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. REGARDLESS...CURRENT SOLUTIONS DO

BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MONDAY BEFORE STALLING

IT OUT. AT MINIMUM...THIS FRONT WOULD BRING SOME COOLING /KNOCKING

TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE/ AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED

TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THE UPPER SUPPORT CAN MATERIALIZE EVEN

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY BE WARRANTED SOMETIME EARLY NEXT

WEEK...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE ACCEPTED THE

BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR

MUCH OF THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

FRIONA 94 66 94 68 / 10 10 20 20

TULIA 94 68 93 69 / 0 10 10 20

PLAINVIEW 93 68 92 70 / 0 10 10 20

LEVELLAND 95 69 94 70 / 0 10 10 20

LUBBOCK 95 69 95 71 / 0 0 10 10

DENVER CITY 96 68 95 69 / 0 10 10 10

BROWNFIELD 96 69 94 70 / 0 0 10 10

CHILDRESS 98 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 10

SPUR 96 70 96 72 / 0 0 0 0

ASPERMONT 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 7:09AM EDT