Poll shows US Senate race in Texas primaries could be headed for runoff

FILE – Poll shows Talarico leading Crockett in Democratic Senate primary | What's Your Point?

A new poll from Emerson College shows state Rep. James Talarico leading U.S. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic nomination for the 2026 U.S. Senate election.

HOUSTON - A poll released Monday showed the U.S. Senate race in Texas’ March 3 primaries could be headed for a runoff to determine who will make it to the general election ballot in November.

The poll of likely voters was conducted at the end of January by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston.

U.S. Senate candidates in Texas from left to right: U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Ahmad Hassan, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Texas Rep. James Talarico. (Campaign Website / Getty Images)

Democratic voters

According to the poll, 47% of likely Democratic voters intend to vote for U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while 39% said they would vote for State Rep. James Talarico. Ahmad Hassan got the backing of 2% of likely voters. Undecided voters made up 12% of the poll.

A majority of Democratic voters said they knew enough about Crockett and Talarico to have an opinion of them. Crockett had a favorability rating of 84%, while Talarico had 79% favorability. 

Republican voters

According to the poll, 38% of likely Republican voters intend to vote for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, while 31% said they would vote for incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and 17% said they would vote for U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Other candidates got 2% of the poll, while 12% of voters said they were undecided.

Most Republican voters said they knew enough about the candidates to have an opinion of them. Paxton had a favorability rating of 72%, Hunt 70% and Cornyn 61%.

According to the poll, 55% of Republican primary voters in Texas would be more likely to vote for a candidate if they were endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Runoff criteria in Texas

Texas is one of a handful of states that require a candidate to get a majority of the votes in a primary to advance to the general election. This means a candidate must get 50% plus one vote to win an election. The top two vote-getters in each primary advance to a runoff. 

Other states require a candidate to receive a plurality of votes, meaning the most votes. The Texas majority law means that crowded races often lead to runoffs, even in the primary stage.

Texas’ primaries are open, meaning people can vote in any primary they want, regardless of party. However, voters are only allowed to cast a ballot in one primary and that primary choice determines in which runoff a voter can participate.