Will it snow in Houston this winter? 2025-2026 Southeast Texas outlook

What Houston can expect this winter: 2025-2026 Southeast Texas outlook

The National Weather Service’s newly released Winter 2025–26 outlook points toward a season that will feel milder than usual for the Houston area. Driven largely by a weak La Niña pattern in the Pacific, the outlook tilts slightly toward warmer-than-average temperatures across the southern United States. For Houston, this means more days that resemble mild late fall rather than extended cold stretches.

HOUSTON - The National Weather Service’s newly released Winter 2025–26 Outlook points toward a season that will feel milder than usual for the Houston area.

Mild, drier season

Big picture view:

Driven largely by a weak La Niña pattern in the Pacific, the outlook tilts slightly toward warmer-than-average temperatures across the southern United States.

Local perspective:

For Houston, this means more days that resemble mild late fall rather than extended cold stretches.

Precipitation is also forecast to trend below normal across the Gulf Coast and much of Texas.

For Houston and Galveston, that generally means fewer prolonged rain events and fewer large storm systems rolling through.

While that could reduce the likelihood of widespread winter flooding, it also means drought conditions in parts of the state may worsen. However, recent heavy rain has shifted the Houston area away from severe drought.

Could it still snow?

Keep in mind:

It's very important to remember that even with the general lean toward a quieter winter, Houston is no stranger to surprises. Seasonal outlooks describe long-term probabilities and not specific events, so individual systems can still produce heavy rainfall.

In the same way, while the winter is expected to be milder than normal, the region is not immune from sharp, short-lived cold snaps. Arctic fronts driven by shifts in large-scale atmospheric patterns can still send temperatures plunging for a day or two, even during a warm winter.

In addition to the cold temperatures, wintery precipitation can also occur during these patterns. Many will remember last winter, the City of Houston had snow, and our friends along the Gulf Coast in New Orleans also had record snowfall. Even though our overall pattern will be warmer and drier, a snowfall from an arctic front is still possible.

Main takeaways:

Overall, Houston can anticipate a season that is often more comfortable than cold, with more mild afternoons and fewer frosty mornings. But the key message is to stay flexible.

Winter in Texas is shaped not just by broad climate patterns like La Niña, but also by shorter-term atmospheric shifts that can swing the weather sharply from one week to the next.