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FILE -- The economy and the 2026 election
The outcome of the midterm election may not hinge on some of the hot topics that drove primary voters to the ballot box. The economy may flip the political narrative in Texas and across the nation.
AUSTIN, Texas - Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick appears to be trailing Democrat Vikki Goodwin in the race to keep his job, according to a poll released Friday.
By the numbers:
The Texas Pulse Poll, conducted by ReconMR for Texas A&M Bush School, surveyed 619 likely Texas voters July 27-30. Democrats made up 29% of respondents, while Republicans made up 36% and Independents made up 33%.
According to the poll, 48% of likely voters are backing Goodwin while 46% are backing Patrick. The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.7%. That’s a flip from June when the same poll found 49% supporting Patrick and 44% supporting Goodwin.
However, 56% of likely voters said they don’t know enough about Goodwin to form an opinion.
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (left) and Democratic candidate state Rep. Vikki Goodwin (right). (Getty Images)
What they're saying:
"That suggests many voters are making decisions based primarily on the broader political context and party cues rather than the candidates themselves," said Texas A&M Professor of Political Science Kirby Goidel. "As the campaign unfolds and voters become more familiar with the Democratic candidates, and weigh the candidates’ stances on the issues, the dynamics of the race could shift considerably."
Goodwin saw her lead among Independents double from nine points in June to 18 points in July, according to the poll.
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TSU poll tells different story
While Goodwin leads in the Texas Pulse Poll, a poll conducted by Texas Southern University and released earlier this week shows the opposite.
According to the TSU poll, 46% of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed backed Patrick to Goodwin’s 39%. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83%
Only 27% of voters said they knew enough about Goodwin to form an opinion, the poll found.
What's next:
The last day to register to vote for the 2026 election is Oct. 5. Early voting in the 2026 election runs Oct. 19-30, and Election Day is Nov. 3.
The Source: Information in this story came from the Texas Pulse Poll, a poll conducted by Texas Southern University and the Texas Secretary of State.