Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local)
A new poll from Fox News shows Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas.
Talarico leads by 2 points in latest poll
By the numbers:
The Fox News poll showed 51% of likely Texas voters said they were voting for Talarico, while 49% said they were voting for Paxton. The numbers are within the poll's 3% margin of error for likely voters.
Voters also view Talarico more favorably than his opponent. Talarico has a net positive rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), compared to Paxton's favorability of negative 18 points (40% vs. 58%).
Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
The poll found that 100% of likely voters that identified as a Democratic Socialist and 98% of non-DSA Democrats backed Talarico, while 96% of MAGA Republicans and 78% of non-MAGA Republicans said they were voting for Paxton.
Around 20% of voters who said they voted for Sen. John Cornyn during the Republican primary and runoff said they were now supporting Talarico.
Where is the support of each candidate the strongest?
Talarico gets strong support from Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under age 35 (62%).
Paxton pulls support from white evangelical Christians (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and voters age 65 and older (55%).
For both candidates, their political views are a concern for voters. More than half of likely voters are concerned Talarico is too liberal (53% concerned) and Paxton is too close to President Donald Trump (51%).
Trump touts economic growth, reinforces support for Paxton during Denton visit
President Donald Trump was in Denton Thursday in what was a mix of a celebration of American manufacturing and Trump administration economic policies and a campaign rally for Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton.
Cost of living remains top issue for Texas voters
Local perspective:
More than one-third (35%) of likely Texas voters said they are falling behind financially. That's double the amount (16%) that said they are getting ahead.
Those falling behind favor Talarico by 32 points, while those that said they were ahead break for Paxton by 48 points.
The largest group of voters (48%) said they were holding steady financially. That group narrowly supported Paxton by 3 points.
Overall, 68% of likely voters said the cost of living was extremely important when considering their vote. Twenty-four percent said it was very important, while 5% said it was not very important when considering a candidate.
READ MORE: Talarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better plan to lower costs?
Two-thirds of voters said Trump was either extremely (48%) or very important (19%) to their vote for the Senate.
Eight in 10 Texans said immigration with either extremely (47%) or very important (32%) to them.
READ MORE: Talarico vs. Paxton: Different plans for Texas’ data center boom
Data centers were also a hot topic among those polled as 34% said the issue was extremely important, 34% said the issue was very important, while 22% said it was not very important and 9% said it was not important at all.
The Source: Information in this article comes from a Fox News poll conducted Sept. 24–28, 2026, by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The results reported come from a sample of 881 likely voters with a 3% margin of error.