Houston weather: Gulf activity bringing heavy rain, flood chances

HOUSTON - We're keeping an eye on a system in the Gulf that's expected to bring some flooding potential to Southeast Texas this week.

Most of Monday dry

The week starts steamy, with Monday highs in the upper 90s and heat index values above 100°. INVEST 97L in the Gulf will change the dry pattern into a rainy couple of days on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Storms and downpours

Scattered showers and downpours along with rounds of thunderstorms will move into southeast Texas starting Monday evening. 

The bulk of the rain arrives Tuesday and could linger through Wednesday.

Low pressure in the Gulf

Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor showers/storms associated with an area of low pressure in the north central Gulf. This system has become better organized over the past 24 hours and is labeled as INVEST 97L. 

Slow development of this system is expected over the next couple of days as it west-northwestward towards Texas. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is possible as it reaches the coast Tuesday.

At the very least, increased moisture from this system will increase our chances for rainfall, some of which may be locally heavy especially east of I-45. 

Forecast rainfall totals are dependent on how this system evolves, so expect the forecast to change a bit over the next day or so. 

As of right now, our latest forecast reflects 2-4" of rainfall east of I-45 with the potential for locally higher amounts. Rainfall rates in tropical environments can easily exceed 3-4" per hour, so localized instances of flash flooding are certainly plausible. 

The window for the heaviest rainfall currently looks to be Tuesday afternoon/evening. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined portions of Southeast Texas at a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for Tuesday.

7-Day Forecast