Tropical weather update - October 23, 2025

Tropical storm Melissa still looks fairly disorganized in the Central Caribbean. But it is forecast to slowly get stronger and blow up into a major hurricane by early next week as it pushes into warmer waters and encounters less shear. Because of its extremely slow movement, it poses a growing threat of heavy rain, flash flooding, and strong winds to Caribbean islands, including Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba. Rainfall of 10 inches or more is possible in some areas along with hurricane force winds. The forecast track is about as uncertain as it gets, but, in general, the area from Jamaica to Haiti will have the biggest risk.