This transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. (NIAID-RML)
HOUSTON - The Texas Medical Center – the largest medical complex in the world – compiles data daily showing COVID-19 trends in the Houston area and how the pandemic is impacting the hospital system.
The numbers offer insight into area ICU capacity and how hospitals are prepared to accommodate more patients, if needed.
The data also examines metrics to gauge progress in community control of the virus in the Houston area.
The Effective Reproduction Rate increased from last week.
The Effective Reproduction Rate for Harris County measures the average number of people who become infected by one infectious person. According to TMC, the rate measures how effective our collective behaviors like mask wearing and social distancing are in slowing the growth of the virus.
TMC says a rate above 1.0 indicates the virus spread is increasing, and a rate below 1.0 means the virus spread is slowing. An indicator of community control is a rate less than 1.0 for 14 days.
Last week, the rate was 0.96. As of September 2, the rate is at 1.09, which means the virus spread is increasing, according to TMC.
New cases in the greater Houston area are six times the community control indicator.
The number of daily new cases for the Greater Houston area is calculated using Texas Department of Health and Human Services data from nine counties: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller.
According to TMC, the number measures the public health strategy shift from getting the virus growth under control to reducing the number of people affected by the virus.
It is difficult for public health teams to effectively trace and help isolate further spread of the virus when the number of new daily cases is above 200, TMC says. An indicator of community control is having less than 200 cases for 14 days.
The number of cases on September 2 measured 1,210, a slight decrease from the 1,116 cases reported the day before.
According to the TMC data, the previous week had an average of 1,415 cases per day.
Positivity rate decreased from last week, and is nearly half of the rate from the previous month.
The current 7-day average COVID-19 testing positivity rate for TMC hospital systems is 5.4%. That number is slightly down from 5.6% last week, according to TMC data, and nearly half of the 10.4% rate from last month.
The data is collected from the systems of CHI Texas Division, Harris Health Systems, Houston Methodist, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Memorial Hermann, Texas Children’s Hospital and UTMB.
According to TMC, a low positivity rate may indicate declining spread of the virus. An indicator of community control is a rate less than 5% for 14 days.
Texas DSHS shows the average positivity rate for the previous week at 10.8% across the Greater Houston area including data the following counties: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, and Waller.
COVID-19 daily hospital admissions trend has an 8.3% growth rate averaged over seven days.
TMC hospitals admitted 116 new COVID-19 patients on September 2, and 114 patients the day before.
In comparison, TMC reported 446 new Coronavirus patients on July 5, their all-time single-day high.
According to TMC, there is currently an 8.3% daily growth rate averaged over seven days in the COVID-19 daily hospital admissions trend.
TMC says while daily new cases may fluctuate for different reasons, the daily hospitalizations trend shows an objective view of how COVID-19 impacts hospital systems.
ICU Capacity is in Phase 1 with 99% utilization.
Texas Medical Center says they are very experienced at operating at near 100% capacity, and they are able to increase capacity when needed.
The Texas Medical Center has three phases that allow hospitals to add capacity when needed by taking steps like adding additional staff, equipment, beds or increasing densification. TMC says they can also moderate intake of non-COVID patients.
Phase 1 has ICU bed configuration and staffing under non-pandemic situations.
Phase 2 builds on ICU capacity through increasing staffing levels and ratios, mobilizing additional Intensive Care equipment and utilizing additional beds.
Phase 3 further increases surge capacity to provide additional temporary intensive care capacity.
As of September 2, TMC ICU capacity is in Phase 1 with 99% utilization. On August 31, TMC reported, the ICU Phase 1 capacity was full and TMC had moved 1% into Phase 2 plans. As of September 2, ICU capacity is no longer in Phase 2.
TMC says the current 7-day average daily growth in occupancy for COVID-19 patients is 1.7% for ICU and 3.2% for Med Surge, and TMC will likely not move into Phase 3 in the next two weeks if this growth continues.