Texas school enrollment sees second-largest historic drop, falls below 5.5 million

Texas public school enrollment has fallen below 5.5 million students this year, marking the second-largest decline in the state’s recent history, according to data from the Texas Education Agency and analysis by Texas 2036.

The enrollment dip for the 2025-26 school year represents a 1.4% decrease from the previous year. It is the first year-over-year decline since the 2020-21 school year, when enrollment plummeted 2.2% during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The decline was driven largely by a sharp drop in Hispanic student enrollment and a shrinking number of children in elementary grades. Of the 76,613 total students lost across the state system, 61,781 were Hispanic. This group, which represents the largest demographic in Texas public schools, accounted for 81% of the total enrollment decline.

Regional Shifts and Demographic Trends

Dig deeper:

The impact of the enrollment decline was felt unevenly across the state's 20 Education Service Center (ESC) regions. While some areas saw total growth, others experienced contraction across nearly every major ethnic group.

2025-2026 Student Enrollment Statewide Totals by Region

2024-2025 Student Enrollment Statewide Totals by Region

Growth Hotspots:

Region 4 (Houston) and Region 10 (Richardson/Dallas): 

These major metropolitan hubs continued to see slight increases in overall numbers, though the rate of growth for White and Black student populations slowed compared to previous years. Asian student enrollment remained a consistent growth sector in these regions.

Region 13 (Austin):

Growth remained positive, bolstered by an increase in Asian and multi-racial student populations, though Hispanic enrollment showed its first signs of plateauing.

Areas of Decline:

Region 1 (Edinburg) and Region 19 (El Paso): 

These border regions saw the most significant dips, driven almost entirely by a decrease in Hispanic enrollment. In Region 1, Hispanic student numbers fell by more than 2.5%, mirroring a broader trend of declining early-grade enrollment in South Texas.

Region 11 (Fort Worth):

Unlike its neighbor Dallas, the Fort Worth region saw a notable decrease in White and Hispanic student enrollment, while Black and Asian populations saw marginal gains.

Region 20 (San Antonio): 

This region saw a downward trend across the three largest demographics: Hispanic, White, and Black students.

Elementary Pipeline "Ripple Effect"

Data also showed that the K-12 pipeline is narrowing from the bottom up. Enrollment in elementary schools (Kindergarten through 5th grade) shrunk by 46,180 students, a 2% drop that accounted for 60% of the statewide decrease.

What they're saying:

"Declines at the elementary level are especially significant because they indicate fewer students entering the pipeline," the Texas 2036 report stated, noting that the trend will likely create ripple effects for middle and high schools in the coming years.

"We are down students and these are somewhat more accelerated than statewide demographic trends indicated — we cannot tell you the precise cause of this. We just know what’s been true over the last school year," said TEA commissioner Mike Morath.

Morath noted that high school enrollment numbers are currently up, but that is expected to change because there are fewer elementary school students. The growing number of empty desks has caused a budget crunch for local school districts. It’s a statewide crisis, according to Austin democrat Gina Hinojosa.

"And a lot of these school districts are not making it. We have 10 schools shutting down in Austin. We will not be the same community after that happens. It is very hurtful. It is happening in Fort Worth, where there are 18 schools proposed for closure. It is happening in El Paso. It is happening in Corpus Christi. It is happening all over the state, and it is blowing up school communities, and I think we need to plan for that as a state because it’s not a local issue," said Rep. Hinojosa.

Hinojosa, who is the Democratic nominee for governor, is attaching the enrollment crisis to the long-running funding debate at the capitol.

"So, we need to have data on why schools are closing. We can make assumptions. We know there is a decline in birth rates, but that's not the only thing happening here, and we need to look into what is," said Hinojosa.

Low birth rates, and even the recent ramp up in immigration enforcement, are considered factors in the school enrollment drop. Researcher Bob Templeton, with STRIVE Public Policy Research, told the committee that the downward trend could total 400,000 over the next five years. 

"This is not another blip or this is an inflection point, and it is the start of a sustained enrollment decline," said Templeton.

Parents are also getting more of a choice in how their kids are educated.

"Texas parents are tired of Democrats making excuses for a public education system that has failed too many children for too long. Governor Abbott is focused on getting education back to the basics: reading, writing, math, and science. His priority is to improve student outcomes, empower parents with more control and better choices for their kids’ education, and make Texas the number one state for educating our kids," said Eduardo Leal, a spokesperson for Governor Greg Abbott.

The new Education Freedom Accounts are expected to accelerate the public education exodus.

"It looks like the legislature has created other places for students to take them out of these traditional public schools," said Rep Diego Bernal (D) San Antonio.

How the new school choice program will impact enrollment next fall remains unknown.

"I would say that within the ISD and outside the ISDs are likely causing the biggest impact on the enrollment decline," said Templeton.

San Antonio Democrat Diego Bernal noted the complex factors are at play.

"I’m not fighting with what science is telling us, but I also think that it would be irresponsible for us to say hey, it’s not a problem. It’s just a global trend when we’ve done something ourselves to accelerate that I’m not sure what the answer is, but I just don’t think we can be uninvolved. That’s the point I’m trying to make: that we should have a discussion," said Rep. Bernal (D) San Antonio.

Bernal went on to suggest discussion should include whether the state should help local districts repurpose the campuses that are closed.

Northeast ISD testimony

The committee also discussed the growing influence AI is having on students and the classroom. A review of the state cellphone ban was also discussed. 

Officials with Northeast ISD testified at the hearing. The district was cited by TEA for not fully complying with the state ban. 

Debra Caldwell with NEISD told the committee the policy the school board originally adopted was done because they interpreted the school day ban to be only during class time, not bell to bell. Caldwell said a new policy that is in line with the law will start next fall. 

Officials with NEISD did urge lawmakers to amend the law to allow some phone use by high school students during the day.

What's next:

Texas 2036 indicated it will follow up with a more detailed report exploring which specific communities and campuses are feeling the impact of these declines most acutely.